(keitai-l) failure, success, strand consulting and imode

From: James Governor <jgovernor_at_illuminata.com>
Date: 12/27/01
Message-ID: <1463EABFC443C045853E539C9DB516CC0915F5@zeus.illuminata.com>
First--note that the word "failure" used in conjunction with imode in
the summary of the Strand report quoted is in speech marks, which
indicates there is an irony to be observed, or question to be raised.

What follows from Mr. Fasol is an interesting "argument".

"This is an astonishing email: it's the first and only time sofar I=20
have heard anybody call imode a "failure". Considering that imode is at
the heart of a new multi-billion dollar industry with more than=20
1000 companies participating as well as providing many new jobs,=20
it's astonishing to call this new industry a failure, and I am not
sure you'll find many people agreeing with your judgment."

Multi-billion dollar industry. More than 1000 companies. Many new jobs.

Ummmmm.... sounds a bit like the Internet, doesn't it Gerhard? I
personally wouldn't say the web was a "failure", but by late 1999/early
2000 it was certainly ready for a shakeout. Thousands of companies have
subsequently gone bust. Thousands of folks have lost their jobs. And for
companies such as EMC, Oracle and so on which had told investors the
internet represented "a new multi-billion dollar industry" the truth was
out there just waiting to make itself felt. Just look at those share
prices and revenue streams now.=20

I have still not seen any good hard evidence on this list or anywhere
else about the majority of imode businesses and whether they earn
revenues/make profits and/or are still in VC or corporate-funded capital
investment mode.

Imode is of course a huge success, as is Yahoo or AOL Time Warner. Does
that mean *every* imode or Net-based business is or will be a success?
This is surely confusing the branded service offering from the ecosystem
supporting it.

Ecosystem is really a key word here. In Europe (or the US) we could not
replicate the exact set of circumstances that led to imode's success any
more than we could replicate Japan itself. Even if we wanted to exactly
replicate imode, Europe has different infrastructures, regulatory
environments, investment climates, cultural differences, "free time"
distribution and so on, which would make such a goal impossible. The
idea imode could come along and somehow throw out everything that had
gone before is absurd to point of surreality. Whether walled garden or
no, this is no "green field". There are realities to attend to in
business, as the Internet lobby recently discovered.

All that can be done in Europe and the US is learn from imode, and try
and build viable economic models for success for businesses based on
"handies" (I still think the German term for mobile of keitai is the
best I have heard! It's handy geddit?) that can work given local
circumstances and conditions.

Gerhard then continues to gnash his gums:
=20
"One such point of misunderstanding is the assumption that the imode
industry consists of content-providers only. That is just plain wrong.
For example, some major content providers in Japan are video chain
stores,
or the railway companies. A railway company with millions customer=20
does not need an official site on DoCoMo's menu, and they don't need=20
to make a stand-alone profit from their imode site."

I can only assume that I have missed something. You first state that the
imode industry does not only consist of content providers. You then
define video stores and railway companies as content providers. Then say
one of these "content providers" doesn't need an official imode menu
option and don't need to make a standalone profit. Then continue as if
an argument were actually being made about walled gardens. Umm. Just
what is the argument being made if you don't mind me asking?

To really clear up some misunderstandings perhaps you should try and get
beyond your own knee-jerk reactions to other people's comments and
input.

Finally you mention an event that you will attend in London and "clear
up misunderstandings in the previous email". Your email? Or someone
else's?

Sorry to be so personal. This is not really intended as a flame, so much
as a call for more clarity. After all, I can think of few people better
qualified to explain how to do imode right than you, Mr. Fasol, after
your successes of the last 2 years.

On the other hand your parochial attitude may harm Eurotechnology's
future prospects. Showing a clear understanding of both the Japanese and
European markets would demonstrate a very clear value proposition.
Claiming there is only one way to skin a cat on the other hand, is
canonical, patronizing, and in my humble opinion, just plain wrong.
Received on Thu Dec 27 16:43:57 2001