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(keitai-l) Re: cdma2000 1x vs W-CDMA

From: <FLEX-MAGAZINE_at_TELDA.NET>
Date: 12/02/02
Message-Id: <202859298TDN_at_TDN.TelDa.Net>
i was in Tokyo two weeks ago and talked to 
analysts and people from carriers about this 
topic. 

the general feeling was that docomo will have 
to keep their PDC system running until at least 
2008/9. 
reasons: 
- they don't have the necessary 3G spectrum 
to switch all their users to FOMA
- the battery issue won't be solved until there 
is a redesigned chipset which involves major 
investments. those won't happen anytime 
soon.
- FOMA's (lateral) coverage will improve, but 
not its depth, i.e. coverage inside buildings 
etc. This won't improve unless they integrate a 
dual mode chipset for either FOMA/PDC, 
FOMA/PHS or FOMA/WLAN.
- of course PDC is and will stay docomo's 
cash cow, so they can't *force* their users to 
switch, because the users then might just 
switch - to KDDI.

as far as the competition between 
cdma2000-1x and FOMA goes, 1x seems to 
have all the advantages on its side right now, 
it's cheaper, it's more efficient, the handsets 
are better, the batteries last longer; this 
migration path just seems smoother than 
docomo's. 

so most people foresee a KDDI dominance in 
the 3g arena for the next 2 years or so.

but no one, not even KDDI people, doubted for 
a second that docomo will catch up by 2004/5, 
if only for their sheer financial and marketing 
power.

docomo is spending big big bucks to keep 
their dominance in the corporate market which 
is much more profitable than the consumer 
market (profitability of corporate clients is 
about 20-30% as opposed to 5-8% of private 
consumers).
their marketing manpower is overwhelming, it 
is estimated that they have about 50 times as 
many corporate sales people as KDDI or 
J-Phone. 

And don't forget PHS which is the current and 
future #1 for data transmission, at least for the 
next 2-3 years. 

flex
Received on Mon Dec 2 13:37:33 2002