(keitai-l) Re: Forrester: WI-FI is going to crash

From: Benedict Evans <ben_at_ben-evans.com>
Date: 06/25/03
Message-ID: <000101c33afc$90429c80$0100a8c0@benedict>
I think there are two separate questions here: 

*What can WiFi really do over wide areas without putting a base station
ever few hundred yards?

*Would consumers use wifi for anything other than the laptop
connectivity ghetto? If not, all due respect, but who cares?

The second question depends partly, but only partly, on the first. I can
get 64-384Kbits/sec in around 50% of the UK TODAY, with Hutchison's '3'
product. That will get better, and wifi will never come close in terms
of coverage. So: 

Under what circumstances will the speed advantage (realistically, wifi
might offer up to twice the speed of 3G where available) and cost
advantage (if any) cause people to use wifi instead of 3G for anything
other than a laptop?

It seems to me self-evident that wifi cannot compete with cellular for
voice. PHS, a comprehensive, integrated cordless system, has only 5M
subscribers, compared with over 50m cellular subscribers. No wifi voice
offering would be anything like as good as PHS. 

-Benedict
Received on Wed Jun 25 12:35:36 2003