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(keitai-l) Is KDDI 3G (10 milion users) winning over DoCoMo Foma?

From: Giovanni Bertani <giovanni.bertani_at_exsense.com>
Date: 10/07/03
Message-Id: <325C9EEA-F8B5-11D7-8649-003065BA6D3A_at_exsense.com>
I am working on a lecture at the University about this so could be very 
nice
to know what you think and include some comments:


 From a KDDI press release:

Number of 3G Mobile Phone (CDMA2000 1x) Users Tops Ten Million

2003/09/17

Tokyo, Japan (Sept. 17, 2003)—KDDI Corp. and Okinawa Cellular announced 
recently that the total cumulative number of users for the 
third-generation mobile phones (CDMA2000 1x) being offered by the two 
companies has surpassed ten million on September 16. Sales of CDMA2000 
1x au mobile phones began on April 1, 2002. The ten million mark was 
surpassed less than eighteen months after the original release. 
Currently, about two-thirds of all au mobile subscribers uses 3G mobile 
phones.


On the DoCoMo side Foma has reached just one million users to date


- Is CDMA2000 1x a real 3G technology?

I do not see this as really important. With CDMA2000 1x (144kbps) you 
can offer
as much rich information as available technology can handle in a useful 
way
on a phone or handheld in a mobile context. You really need a laptop to 
see
the advantage of 3g but then you also compete with Wi-FI.

- Can we consider DoCoMo Foma introduction a strategic flop still to be 
recovered?

Personally I think that introducing Foma without a dual-mode phone 
capable
of roaming in 2g was really a bold error. Also DoCoMo has underestimated
the real user experience (Size, Battery, software, services, costs etc) 
that
was, by the end, much worse on the 3g Foma phones than their "old" 2g 
phones.
Is quiet interesting to see that broadband 3g has been growing much 
faster in Italy
with Three in Italy than in Japan with DoCoMo Foma. Is not Japan known 
to be
a more sensible market for new technology?

- Is there any interesting application for speed over 144kbs?

VideoCalls are not taking-off in Japan or EU and you can handle with
a quite limited bandwith . With an optimised 144kbs connection
you can have high quality Mpeg4 streaming video content. So it is very 
difficult
to find a bandwith intensive application for an hand-held device based 
on
current technology.

These are really general problems about the transition form 2g to 3g 
and the
future of mobile communication.


Thank You

Giovanni
________________________________________________________
giovanni bertani   mobile vas consultant and analyst
exsense italy 
   
Received on Tue Oct 7 13:58:43 2003