By not having an emphatic, unambiguous answer on all
this, I undoubtedly risk a fatal blow to my credentials
as KEITAI-L's #1 pundit-impersonator.
Oh, well.
If you're still reading anyway, try the following quiz question:
NTT DoCoMo is
a) a wildly successful pioneer in consumer mobile data networking,
one that deserves every future success that its current success can
breed;
b) a dangerously near-monopoly by virtue of its corporate parentage
and its current market dominance, and thus a potential (if not
actual) structural impediment to market access for foreign companies;
c) a national public trust, since NTT's stock is virtually majority-
owned by the Japanese government, and one with profit-protection
duties to honorably discharge on the behalf of Japanese taxpayers
(Japanese businesses especially) - but to nobody else, thank
you very much.
d) a former NTT backwater that stumbled onto success by being
forced to survive a telecom deregulation that was pressed on Japan
by foreign governments who were seeking to open up Japan's mobile
telephony markets to free and fair competition;
e) ALL of the above. NO SINGLE ONE of which is enough to
make a fair judgment on issues like the apparent lack of
transparency or rigorous standards in the process of official-site
selection, as Virgin might have experienced.
Now, in case anyone is left wondering, my choice is (e). It's a
messy world, people. And I haven't even gotten into Virgin's own
mobile-space branding, and the still-thawing Japan airline market,
which also form some likely competitive/anti-competitive wrinkles
in this particular mess.
Answer "a" ("free markets uber alles") ignores reality. Such an
obvious strawman, really. In the 90s alone we've seen
accumulation of, and abuse of, monopoly power (Microsoft),
head-over-heels speculative mania (the Internet bubble), and
cornering of commodities markets (Sumitomo). In short,
every known, incurable malady of unrestricted competition.
Especially in the case of Microsoft, increasing-returns effects
accelerated by software, computers, electronics and networking
throw the monopoly-formation issues into dramatic relief.
So give me reasonable regulation, or give me death.
People who live in glass houses shouldn't be throwing
chunks of the Berlin Wall all over the hot-house plantation.
I do wish they'd stop. Or at least let them kill me now
before they continue their descent into hunter-gatherer
savagery.
Answer "b" ("all your base-stations are belong to us") doesn't
quite do justice to the complexity and heterogeneity of the
Japanese mobile telephony space. There are second-tier
players here that are bigger than the *dominant* mobile
operations of entire (albeit small) European countries.
DoCoMo undoubtedly has an unfair edge, but that still hasn't
been enough to hand it the whole pie. DoCoMo probably
never WILL have enough of an edge until it corners the market
on cute Japanese models and pop stars for advertising
purposes. ("Get the phone, AND the girl!")
Answer "c" ("this week's special: hinomaru-brand phones") will,
as with all patriotic arguments in politico-economic tussles, be
the last refuge of various scoundrels, who are as abundant in
Japan as they are anywhere else. Ignore them. When Koizumi
starts talking about "protecting i-mode," start worrying. Not until
then.
(OK, maybe there are a *few* more scoundrels in Japan
than in most G7 countries, but, as my economist friend Stephen
Turnbull likes to roar, when we're having drunken comparative-
economics arguments in which Japan seems to be losing out,
"There's ALWAYS [slam both fists into beer-puddles on the
table for redundant emphasis] *ITALY*!!!")
Answer "d" ("Uncle Sam made you, Uncle Sam can break you")
lends the historical backdrop a bit of comic relief, perhaps, but
doesn't justify any current claim against DoCoMoteers who worked
so hard to realize the hitherto-unsuspected market potential of the
technology. I mean, really. If you get a woman pregnant
without learning her name, then disappear for six years, you can
forget about being called "Dad".
See how easy it is to argue this issue seventeen different
ways?
This is why I go with "e" - take it all into consideration, and
suffer analysis-paralysis. As someone once said, "I don't have
an answer, but I certainly admire the question".
But you're right: this is unsastisfying. And I don't have
the answer. Really. So I guess I'll just have to go
on impersonating a Japanese mobile-space pundit, rather
than actually being one. :-(
-m
leap@gol.com
Jeff Funk writes:
> Hello Juergen and others,
>
> I agree with most of what Juergen has said. I also think ....
[ Did you check the archives? http://www.appelsiini.net/keitai-l/ ]
Received on Thu May 10 09:14:58 2001