Moth to the flame, stepping in where I'm sure
to get torched.....
> > ///: hmmm... good observation. 1,700 people watch your
> > clip on a FOMA? What else is there? Where is all that
> > content coming from, to keep 1,700 glued to their Boutique
> > Bricks of a phone?
[Juergen goes into the M-Stage Visual details]
Sure, it's wireless, but hey, so is analog TV -- and we've been
able to buy palmable TVs for a long time. Some of them even
have high video quality. (Though you end up paying for that,
Is Eggy jumping off the shelves? Not to my knowledge.
And when was the last time you saw anybody with one of
those tiny analog TVs, even having all the content choices you
have with a regular TV (except cable)? I can't remember.
But when was the last time *I* saw someone thumbtyping?
Well, about 2 minutes ago, when I stepped off Waseda-dori.
And she was one of dozens I noticed in my brief forays
Now I have to say, if you must do video on a
mobile phone, go with established standards like
MPEG, over some (probably) patent-encumbered
WAP Forum quasi-proprietary format. Just to get
that issue out of the way. (Dream on, Michael.)
To me, however, a bigger question still looms. Is video
a mobile phone killer app? It's worth a large test-market
investment just to find out. If you make it successful, somehow,
you can practically start printing money. And one could
construe 3G phone test-marketing as, among other things, a
test of consumer interest in, and acceptance of, mobile-phone
video. So we'll have to see how that comes out.
My bet? Mobile video won't be compelling in the ways that really
matter. Many people will look at it, say "Ooh, cool!" (they have
already), but will balk at the handset price. A few will buy, try, and get
bored (or bore everyone else with it.) Make it cheaper, it'll still
be boring. Or worse, annoying.
Yes, Content is King, and there's a lot of motion-picture
content out there. But while a King of Malta or Andorra
or Lichtenstein or Monaco [*] may be addressed "Your Royal
Highness", he is still just a marketing icon for postage stamp
collectors, when you come right down to it. Real estate
matters, and that screen is just too damned small. More pixels,
deeper pixels, pixels coming at you faster -- so what? Talking
heads have to be close to life-size, or we won't pay attention.
Media like video work (when they do) by supplanting imagination.
Media like text, audio, illustration (and even still photography) work
because they kindle imagination.
The keitai boom fed off exercising people's imagination, not
substituting for it. I believe this boom will continue insofar as
it feeds people's need for assistance in being imaginative,
while still leaving people feeling in control -- or at least
feeling like they are a part of something.
Video doesn't fill those needs. As you can see any time you
watch someone (or yourself) ferociously surfing at the rate
of over a channel per second, seeking -- and often
not finding -- something they are willing to surrender
themselves to. If video fails that much even on a big screen,
just imagine how poorly it's going to go over on something
pocket-sized. Not to mention packet-charged.
[*] yeah, yeah, I know: these are at best principalities.
> > MPEG4 is just not there. It's too bulky for wireless and
> > burns too many resources, the current phones can't support
> > for a while.
> Don't mix your theoretical understanding of the situation
> and the reality. The Eggy device is there, this is not a
> prototype and it works *everytime* (everybody
> can test this for free in the DoCoMo shops).
> And now look at this picture of the official i-mode
> menu of the new Panasonic:
> On top you see an additional link to M-Stage Visual, which
> is not there on other phones (yet).
> Here is the M-Stage Visual Top Menu:
> In case you missed this, Renfield described pretty much
> how the M-Stage Visual service works *also* on the FOMA
> > When we all move around in a solid 500k> Network, and we
> > have phones with 300Mhz processors, that last (power) for
> > more than a day; then we can enjoy MPEG4 information clips
> > all day.
> ...Japanese users enjoy this already on a 64kBit network
> Yesterday I saw a Japanese guy in the train and he had
> a T-Shirt with the printed statement: "We are 5 years ahead
> of our time". If I read your entertaining posts, I know he
> is right.
> Juergen Specht [Nooper.com - Mobile Services Inc.] http://nooper.com
> For a better i-mode experience. NooperLabs: http://nooper.co.jp/labs/
> [ Did you check the archives? http://www.appelsiini.net/keitai-l/ ]
[ Did you check the archives? http://www.appelsiini.net/keitai-l/ ]
Received on Thu Jul 19 11:01:11 2001