>However, the persistent usage for phone will always be voice,
>video will address the needs of the few rather than the many.
>If they have to pay significant money for the privilege, then
>I'd divide by ten straight away.
It's less likely to be a division by people, but a division by application.
But I would agree that there are far fewer applications where video makes
sense and far more where traditional services without video make sense.
As far as I can see, there are three groups of application for
video-plus-telephony:
- video telephony
- video on demand
- video conferencing
At the danger of being flamed, I uphold an earlier claim that video
conferencing is outrightly impossible on a screen-based mobile phone. 3G
and lot's of bandwidth or not - the stumbling block is screen size. A white
board and the ability to see multiple participants at the same time in a
pocket format would require something like a micro holo projector.
This leaves video telephony and video on demand for the time being ...
Video telephony has been around for a while and never caught on. As has
been reported on this list by people who have tried FOMA's video telephony
feature, once the wow-factor has worn off this quickly becomes a lesser
useful service, people are unlikely to spend the extra charges on.
I can see some application however where people will be happy to use this.
For example, if you are a travelling consultant and you haven't seen your
loved ones for a while, then video telephony definitely adds quality to
your life. However, this closer-to-home effect is significantly increased
with a screen that shows the correspondent in near life size and therefore
a PC/notebook based video-telephony service over broadband wired internet
is more likely to appeal.
Another example where video telephony even on a tiny screen makes sense is
where people have never met before and want to see what the other party
looks like, a put-a-face-to-a-name feature. This is especially useful when
meeting in a public place with someone you have never met before. But
again, this is a more occassional use.
There are also some caveats. Especially in Japan, the video telephony
feaature is likely to be abused on unaware victims, such as taking shots of
women's underwear etc etc. Moreover, you wouldn't want to have the video on
when you are not properly dressed for example. Interesting question is,
what would people do, if they are not properly dressed when they know their
boss is calling and they suspect that they might be asked to switch the
video on - perhaps they won't even pick up in the first place.
Video on demand over a mobile has been compared to those pocket TVs. I
believe there is a lot of sense in that comparison, especially as on the
mobile there will be a charge where there was none on those pocket TVs. One
could argue that if there is better content, then people will pay for it. I
would however argue, that if people are paying for it, they might at least
want to get that paid content on a decent screen size to get more value for
money.
>If video has a chance of success, it'll be in Japan first.
True. In Japan, where people spend significant time on commuting using
public transport and therefore have time to kill, there is a chance for
-say- music video clips or anime clips, but it has to be very reasonably
priced.
Again there are a few applications where this service makes sense. Say you
want to monitor your home or a room in your home or in the office from time
to time, it is likely that you would want to do that independent of
location and the screen size may matter less. More importantly, if you are
trying to find a place, a small video clip showing the place could be the
navigation aid add-on that makes the difference between getting lost and
getting there in time.
For deaf people video telephony could be a blessing though. If the screen
size and the quality is sufficient to carry out a conversation in sign
language, it would be the first time they can use a phone and talk like
they are used to.
However, all those applications are in the category of niche services, more
likely to account for only a smaller percentage of all services, far less
than traditional services. Unlikely to become the killer applications
everybody is looking for.
rgds
benjamin
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Received on Tue Aug 7 12:00:00 2001