Apologies for late response here, but I was 400+ messages
behind in my reading again. I'm now into mid-July! :-)
GB Says:
>The evidence from Eggy and the fact that pocket TVs have been
>around for donkey's years (and nobody has one!) suggests that
>mobile video phones could well be an industry tell-sell where we
>(the Industry) have pre-emptied the demand of the consumer
>believing they will buy a great technology on the basis that it
>turns the likes of us gadget freaks on (not the other 99.999%
>of the population).
I've always worked with the figure of 5%, known as the gadget
freaks and the early adopters, (ie, more money than sense,) to
establish a figure for gadget uptake.
The difference is that when a gadget includes "life-changing"
technologies like radio/tv/mobile personal washing machine,
the uptake will eventually be more dramatic.
However, the persistent usage for phone will always be voice,
video will address the needs of the few rather than the many.
If they have to pay significant money for the privilege, then
I'd divide by ten straight away. Like many mobile phones, they
may come with email, contact managers etc - all included in my
somewhat obtuse big-screen Sharp/Alcatel GSM beast - but as
future phones include licensed software which push up the
purchase price, people just won't be using them to their
full capacity and not be quick to choose a hi-featured model.
I was offered a new WAP phone for US$4 and an additional
monthly fee of US$1.50 on my existing account. I turned
it down for the reason that I will never use WAP. I do
class myself as a gadget freak, but to me gadgets come
on high plateaus. My next phone will be colour, big
screen, GPRS etc - I'm not a minimal incrementalist,
I'm a late adopter.
If video has a chance of success, it'll be in Japan first.
Steve Z
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Received on Tue Aug 7 10:40:07 2001