(keitai-l) Re: One big family?

From: Tony Chan <tonyc_at_telecomasia.net>
Date: 11/15/01
Message-ID: <3BF396E4.7E650B4B@telecomasia.net>
cfb wrote:


Uh... I think microsoft is trying to attack the problem from the

> ass-end of things (i.e.. where you keep your wallet).  Besides,
> why get mired down in setting standards for the loss leader
> handset market (who's growth is starting to petter-out and
> who's internet access networks have yet to be built in most
> of the world) if you can't own the network that actually
> generates the profit?
>

I think Microsoft would love to have Windows, or a varient of it, inside every cell
phone, so it can then everything that that cell phone talks to. Look at Pocket PC
2002, the new version. It is marketed as the industry's "most connected" PDA
platform. What does it have, a MS operating system, MS programs like Outlook that
syncs much better with Outlook on the desktop, a VPN client from MS that I suspect
only works properly when you are using VPN gear on the back end from BigMS. It is
the same kind of strategy they outline for the cell phone platform - Stinger. MS
have put some $150 million (if I remember correctly) in Sendo of the UK to produce
a cell phone using Pocket PC. If anything is certain about MS on the mobile phone
space, is that they would love to set the standard - their own standard.

>
> Microsoft's basic proposition is:
>
>    What use, if any, is internet access on a cell phone if you can't:
>    1) make money from it (DoCoMo does this)
>    2) allow the user to transparently buy stuff and make
>        make money from the transaction (indeed, the profit
>        gained by terminating the transaction could *easily*
>        make the any profit gained from terminating the call
>        look petty).

Every operator wants to get a piece of this pie, but I'm sure the banks will have
something to say about that.

>
> And if they aren't successful in being invited, even *paid*, to
> join any such standards consortiums/industry klusterfscks, then
> they'll just put the hotmail asset on the table and let the carriers
> force the issue (and the music industry would be wise to sit up
> and start taking notes if such a gambit proved successful).
>
> A friend of mind, who follows the deepest nokes and cranies
> of the internet/telcom industry, said he had run across an
> interesting little blurb somewhere that Honda was actually
> considering bundeling some type of cellular phone access with
> a purchase of their cars for the simple reason that a sizable
> market niche exists for whom their monthly cellular phone bills
> have out stripped their car payments for the duration of the
> average car loan

And why not? In Hong Kong Toyota has been offering a Motorola phone as a standard
option on some models for years. Mercedes I think has a similar deal in Europe. Or
look at the biggest cellular reseller in the UK, its called Carphone Warehouse. I
wonder where they got that name from?
Its a sure trend in the cellular industry that network owners will become
disenfranchise from their customers. Imagine Coca-Cola going up to Vodafone and
saying, "rent me 10 million lines worldwide on your networks for $10/line a month."
Coke can then calculate the margins on a can of Coke, say 25c, which means that 40
cans of coke pays for one subscriber. It can then resell the cellular service at
$5/month with a condition that the buyers must buy $40 cans of cokes. Coke might
lose $5 on paper, but it will probably sell more cans of soft drink.

It is the basic concept of wholesale. Bargain with a network owner for a bulk
discount on minutes and then sell it with a margin to end-users. While someone like
Vodafone might not be keen on this kind of deal since it might cannibalize their
own customer-base, the situtation will be different for the smaller operators who
have half their network sitting idle? What about when 3G networks get roll out and
operators end up with 2x the capacity serving the exactly the same market size? Or
new 3G operators with a brand new network and no customer base to start off? There
will definitely be those operators out there who would rather become a wholesaler
than to go broke.


> .... (all that really says to me is that the average

> cellular phone user in Japan is used to getting screwed and
> has little choice in the matter... that and that lots of people are
> due to start dropping dead from brain tumors).  I don't know of
> any Japanese carriers stupid enough to make that kind of
> "value move", but sometimes the business physics in Japan
> don't map well to my own little personal version of reality.

As for Japan, I'm surprise no one has done it yet. Doesn't Honda, or Toyota, or
some other big car manufacturer own, or use to own, a big chunk of KDDI or Japan
Telecom?

>
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Received on Thu Nov 15 12:28:37 2001