Why would they want to move all users to 3G?
The issue of dual-mode handsets PDC/FOMA would resolve that issue in
the year(s) to come...
the battery issue is a problem but because of the backing of huge
players (Nokia, Ericsson, Sony, Nec,...) it would be amazing that could
not figure out how to prolonge battery life... but off course it will
take a while.
same goes for indoor coverage... whether you are running WCDMA, GSM,
CDMA, or the lot you still have poor indoor coverage with only outdoor
basestations... so the vendors are bringing in indoor base stations...
(picocells)...
As you said, with enough will (and money) I am sure they can figure out
the issues.
W.
FLEX-MAGAZINE@TELDA.NET wrote:
>i was in Tokyo two weeks ago and talked to
>analysts and people from carriers about this
>topic.
>
>the general feeling was that docomo will have
>to keep their PDC system running until at least
>2008/9.
>reasons:
>- they don't have the necessary 3G spectrum
>to switch all their users to FOMA
>- the battery issue won't be solved until there
>is a redesigned chipset which involves major
>investments. those won't happen anytime
>soon.
>- FOMA's (lateral) coverage will improve, but
>not its depth, i.e. coverage inside buildings
>etc. This won't improve unless they integrate a
>dual mode chipset for either FOMA/PDC,
>FOMA/PHS or FOMA/WLAN.
>- of course PDC is and will stay docomo's
>cash cow, so they can't *force* their users to
>switch, because the users then might just
>switch - to KDDI.
>
>as far as the competition between
>cdma2000-1x and FOMA goes, 1x seems to
>have all the advantages on its side right now,
>it's cheaper, it's more efficient, the handsets
>are better, the batteries last longer; this
>migration path just seems smoother than
>docomo's.
>
>so most people foresee a KDDI dominance in
>the 3g arena for the next 2 years or so.
>
>but no one, not even KDDI people, doubted for
>a second that docomo will catch up by 2004/5,
>if only for their sheer financial and marketing
>power.
>
>docomo is spending big big bucks to keep
>their dominance in the corporate market which
>is much more profitable than the consumer
>market (profitability of corporate clients is
>about 20-30% as opposed to 5-8% of private
>consumers).
>their marketing manpower is overwhelming, it
>is estimated that they have about 50 times as
>many corporate sales people as KDDI or
>J-Phone.
>
>And don't forget PHS which is the current and
>future #1 for data transmission, at least for the
>next 2-3 years.
>
>flex
>
>This mail was sent to address wimjam@gmx.co.uk
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>
>
Received on Mon Dec 2 17:47:47 2002