(keitai-l) Re: predictions

From: Curt Sampson <cjs_at_cynic.net>
Date: 01/09/03
Message-ID: <[email protected]>
On Thu, 9 Jan 2003, Ken Chang wrote:

> there are already prototypes of million pixel camera modules
> (check out reports on CEATEC 2002), and will be put into mass
> production in summer I think.  a survey last year showed that
> over 40% of users wanted the enhanced resolution.  the sudden
> success of Casio Exilim underscored that need.

The Exilim (and the Sony Cybershot-U, while you're on about it) was
successful as a camera, not a telephone. If people are looking for
megapixel cameras in their telephones, it's because they want to combine
a traditional digital camera and a telephone into one unit, not because
they want to pay 600 yen or more in packet charges per picture that they
mail to another telephone.

Given that you're talking about 200-300 KB images, consider the
following points:

    1. Mailing megapixel images off the phone is prohibitively expensive
    (see above), not to mention very, very slow on 2G systems.

    2. Standard memory capacities do not provide very many photos, by
    digital camera standards. (8 MB gives you about 24 shots.)

Both of these point to these phones having some sort of memory card.
But this adds considerably to size and weight (see the AU's Toshiba
A5301T for an example), and we are possibly seeing a trend back towards
smaller, lighter phones, if the (admittedly limited) success of the new
Panasonic Docomo models is anything to go by.

So no, I don't think it's really so obvious that most or all cameras
will be going megapixel in the next year or so. I'd be willing to bet,
for example, that within a year we'll see cameras on Docomo's (still
very popular) 2xx series, and they definitely won't be megapixel, and
probably not even 640x480.

Curt Sampson  <cjs_at_cynic.net>   +81 90 7737 2974   http://www.netbsd.org
    Don't you know, in this new Dark Age, we're all light.  --XTC
Received on Thu Jan 9 23:38:40 2003