(keitai-l) Re: Forrester: WI-FI is going to crash

From: Debi Jones <djones_at_wireless-one.org>
Date: 06/25/03
Message-ID: <[email protected]>

I must respectfully disagree with your assessment.  The discussion might be
a waste of your time given your view of the marketplace was only what you
personally consider useful at the present moment.  Wireless technologies
other than cellular networks and devices will affect your life and
communications, hopefully for the better.

It is interesting to me that at least 2 Europeans in this group feel that
Bluetooth has a rosy future.  That fact makes me want to look into the
European point of view with more depth.  Here's a different analyst's view
of how the public WLAN market will evolve.  Notice bullet number 2 and 3.

From InStat - MDR

The study also found that:
  a.. While it might be easy to summarily discount industries such as
manufacturing in favor of the more aggressive adopters such as
transportation, In-Stat/MDR believes vendors must not make this mistake. The
sheer size of companies in vertical markets such as manufacturing means
that, although overall penetration within the industry is lower compared to
others, the actual number of wireless WAN data subscribers is still actually
higher than other vertical market segments.

  b.. Most current wireless data implementations rely on the cellular
network, and often on private company networks, with lesser use of messaging
and other technologies. The study also showed high implementation of
wireless LANs in these companies, and it seems likely that these companies
also will be excellent prospects for public wireless LAN services in the

  c.. While the research shows high usage of cellular phones as the wireless
access devices of choice today, end user companies are focusing more
attention on notebooks with wireless modems in the future.
If you'd like to read more of this article here's the link.

Of course, there could be differences in how wireless technologies are
deployed in the US versus Europe versus Asia.  Not an unimportant
consideration, btw.


----- Original Message -----
From: "Giovanni Bertani" <giovanni.bertani@exsense.com>
To: <keitai-l@appelsiini.net>
Sent: Tuesday, June 24, 2003 5:23 PM
Subject: (keitai-l) Re: Forrester: WI-FI is going to crash

> Benedict
> I agree with your view.
> Coverage, Qos, battery life, weigh are all more important
> factors in keitai than greater speed.
> If we compare WI-FI versus 3G in terms of speed we are
> completely out... I really consider this comparison a waste
> of time.
> Most of the wider coverage WI-FI versions are not compatible
> with a real world handset form factor and usage. Most of them
> are still experimental and not standardized (Like 4G) and they
> are really more vapourware than a solution.
> For the market I can agree with Forrester. WI-FI will remain
> a business oriented niche product while bluetooth will be
> widespread. Anyway 3G, Bluetooth, WI-Fi are wireless
> technologies that have been designed for different purposes
> and not to compete.
> For my experience:
> I personally use WI-FI (Apple Airport) in the office to move around
> with my laptop, i sync my calendar and contacts with bluetooth
> (Apple iSync and Nokia 3650) and I use 3G (3) data connection
> to make phone voice calls (Videocalls are more or less useless
> today), access the mobile portals and check the e-mail on the move.
> So really I am using 3g, WI-FI and bluetooth and a way that gives
> me value but they are not competing at all.
> Giovanni
> Marted=EC, 24 giu 2003, alle 20:21 Europe/Paris, Benedict Evans ha=20
> scritto:
> >
> >
> > My view on public WLAN, really, is that:
> > *it is compelling for laptop connectivity in fairly confined areas,
> > where there is a significant market, but which mobile operators really
> > don't care about.
> > *It cannot compete with cellular connecting anything smaller than a
> > laptop on a wide area basis.
> >
> > Consider, for a moment - how many applications that can take advantage
> > of the greater speed offered by WLAN will fit on a screen that fits in
> > your pocket? Streaming video looks just fine at 200K. What does the
> > 17-year-old use 1Mbit for? Why will they pay an additional=20
> > subscription?
> >
> >
> > I ran through these issues in some depth in a report I wrote just=20
> > before
> > getting shut down :-(
> >
> > http://www.ben-evans.com/cv_1/wlanflash.pdf
> >
> >
> >> This is just what they said about PHS, which in terms of take-up for
> > data access is currently kicking 3G's butt
> >> in Tokyo.
> >
> >  And what's the return on the original investment in PHS? Have any of
> > the operators come even close to making their money back? Aren't they
> > just milking a written-down asset base?
> >
> > -Benedict Evans
> >
> >
> >
> > This mail was sent to address giovanni.bertani@exsense.com
> > Need archives? How to unsubscribe? http://www.appelsiini.net/keitai-l/
> >
> This mail was sent to address djones@wireless-one.org
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Received on Wed Jun 25 10:38:28 2003