Hi Giorgio,
Perhaps I misunderstodd you, but my point was that there will be very
substantial increases in traffic on cellular networks driven not
(primarily) by new data services, although those will have a role, but
by the large-scale migration of voice traffic off fixed networks onto
mobile networks. And that UMTS gives the mobile operators enough
capacity to do this. 3's declaration on pricing is part of that jigsaw -
they, like TIM and Vodafone, have signalled their intention to drive
such migration once their networks are up to it.
In this context, EDGE is a short-term upgrade that is mostly applicable
for operators in low-population-density countries (like Finland) or
those in third or forth place who have sufficiently few customers that
capacity isn't an issue (and anywau such operators generally haven't the
money to built 3G aggressively).
-----Original Message-----
From: keitai-l-bounce@appelsiini.net
[mailto:keitai-l-bounce@appelsiini.net] On Behalf Of Giorgio Andreoli
Sent: 07 October 2003 15:59
To: keitai-l
Subject: (keitai-l) Re: Is KDDI 3G (10 milion users) winning over DoCoMo
Foma?
> If I were you I'd be careful saying 'can't', give that Vodafone are
> saying that for them it can.
Well, if weather forecasts after the 6th day is still an unmanageable
problem, let's figure out 3G investment assessments after 3rd year...
;-)
I don't know about Vodafone declarations, but I know "3" is now saying
that they see their future in voice traffic pricing competition. This
sounds
as a purely survival strategy, unless it's a tactic move waiting for
more
reliable networks and terminals - but then, with which brand will they
market new fancy services?!
The point is: if you want to increase GSM operators' capacity in the
short
term, I guess EDGE is less expensive and (much) more reliable than UMTS,
right now.
Giorgio
> As regards growth in cellular traffic; just because everyone has a
> phone, that doesn't mean the market is anywhere near saturated.
> There's currently 3-5 times more voice traffic originating on fixed
> networks than on mobile networks in most European markets. That is
> unlikely to be the case in 10 years.
>
> -Benedict
I don't follow you: in countries where 90%-like penetration has been
reached,
the common prescription to increase traffic is to stimulate more data
services
usage, but this happens at quite slow rate and is subject to PC-like
saturation (no more than 35% of subscribers will use data services or
something like that). About stimulating voice traffic: of course I
expect the average mobile voice call
to be shorter than fixed call, and that some population segments (e.g.
elder people) generate little or no mobile traffic, but this reflects
different
usage patterns and behaviours (shorter calls on the move, elder people
using
the mobile only for emergency etc.). I don't see how to modify these
usage
patterns in the short term.
Giorgio
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Received on Tue Oct 7 19:00:15 2003