(keitai-l) Re: tsutaya ads

-----Original Message-----
From:	Stephen Walker [SMTP:stephen@valueclick.ne.jp]
Sent:	Friday, September 08, 2000 5:50 PM
To:	keitai-l@appelsiini.net
Subject:	(keitai-l) Re: tsutaya ads

At 14:46 00/09/08 +0900, jeffrey funk  wrote:

>    While the click rates will probably go down as someone else pointed 
out,
>the traffic on I-mode is rising quickly. The I-mode menu probably 
receives
>between 10 and 20 million views per day.

i-menu is no doubt getting many times more traffic than that. Better ask Ren 
:)
I am referring to the I-menu, the menu list, and any of the main categories 
(e.g, news) on the main list. These three levels are clearly docomo's 
territory day. Thus, the three levels generate between 30 and 45 clicks per 
month and they get between 10 and 20 million clicks per day on these three 
sites (10 million users times 1 or 1.5 clicks per day).
>If click rates drop to 1.0% which
>would be twice the PC rate according to steve wallace, this would mean 
that
>an advertiser would pay value click about 26 million yen per day (20 
million
>x 0.01 x 130 yen) or 780 million yen per month. Docomo would receive 
about
>10% of that or 78 million yen per month.

I do not believe any ad network is currently getting 20 million PV/day
through i-mode.
ValueClick Japan's beta testing of its MobileClick network is currently
getting up to 1 million PV/day through about 180 katte sites.
The rate card may be around 130 yen/click, but you have to remember ad
agency commissions usually have to be deducted from the gross figure.

With this kind of katte site-based model, I don't see where DoCoMo, as the 

gateway, enters the ad revenue loop?
My statements weren't completely clear. If Docomo were to place ads on its 
I-mode menu (that is if), it could make these kinds of money. The real point 
is that advertising could become very important due to the huge click 
rates.
>Docomo now receives 225 million yen
>per month for its clearinghouse service (10 million subscribers x 250 yen 
x
>9%). I may have made a mistake in my math but it looks as though the

I may have missed something earlier on the list, but does this mean the
average i-mode user is paying 250 yen/month for i-menu (3rd party) pay-for 

content?
They apparently receive between 250 and 300 yen per month per subscriber of 
which they pay 9%. Interestingly, this 250 to 300 is far less than its 
packet income so the content providers aren't making anywhere near as much 
money as Docomo (of course th is SW's point about the greater importance of 
packet charges).
>advertising income could start to rival the income from providing a
>clearinghouse service.
>    This is why the rise in traffic to unofficial sites that renfield 
kuroda
>pointed out earlier is so important. By not providing this service
>themselves, docomo is missing out on potential advertising income.

Why would DoCoMo want to deal with all these katte sites for a cut of their 

ad revenue when they can make money from data packets? Also, even with
someone in the i-menu like Tsutaya running ads on their site, would DoCoMo 

really try and take a cut of the revenue? I thought they set up D2C with
Dentsu to offer value-added services to official sites?
I'm only talking about the three levels that I mentioned above. Clearly, it 
only makes sense to docomo if it can generate a reasonable amount of income. 
And this will require high click rates through targeted ads. This is clearly 
the challenge of advertising on the fixed-line and mobile internet.  But my 
real point is that advertising can generate a lot of money. The same 
arguments I am putting forth here hold for all of the content providers and 
this is why cybird and others are trying to create portals. Look on the 
I-mode menu and you will find that bandai and tsutsuya online (perhaps also 
I-size) have already consolidated their contents in one portal site. These 
companies are doing this in order to generate more ad revenues and create a 
brand image. Cybird was apparently getting 10 million clicks a day on all of 
its sites in july.
>And if
>click rates stay above 1.0% say at the 5% level, docomo could make 290
>million yen per month in advertising. Of course, the reason why the

5%? Seems extremely optimistic in the medium term.

>unofficial sites are in business is that they are making money from
>advertising and perhaps a little from charging for information.

I guess a few katte sites are making are a bit of money from ads at the
moment, but it would be a tiny percentage of the 20,000 katte sites out
there already.

More questions than answers...
Have a good weekend

SW




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