Daniel Helmer wrote:
> Today's editorial in Japan Times "Hanging up on 3G" is an example of the 3G
> anti-hype that is becoming increasingly common in mainstream news media
> around the world.
>
> http://www.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/geted.pl5?ed20010517a1.htm
>
> Editors who know absolutely nothing about telecoms copy each other
> uncritically, sprinkling the articles with cliches and rethorics such as;
> 'growing clouds over the entire sector', 'growing doubts about the 3G holy
> grail', '3G bets misplaces', 'bad signs for the whole industry', 'bet its
> future on 3G', 'delays of much-hyped service, magnifying jitters about the
> viability of 3G technology', 'desperately trying to recoup extravagant
> spending on 3G licenses' etc. etc.
>
> And they are going on and on and on about these license costs in Europe,
> without even knowing that this ONLY applies to the UK and Germany (which
> accounted for over 75% of all licence costs in Europe). Most other markets
> were bargains, or free!!!
Alas, there _is_ a reason to go on and on about the license costs.
The Japan Times story is misleading and uninformed (as usual) --
I especially liked the "major Japanese wireless providers admit
they won't make a profit for 5-7 years" bit, leaving out the little
key words "on 3G", two days after Docomo announced record profits --
but last week's Economist distills the situation much better (as usual):
http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=618389
The real problem is debt. Most European telecom companies took on
huge amounts of debt ($200 billion total!) to pay for licenses and
3G equipment, and only now that their credit ratings have sunk to BBB
are they realizing that it will be a looooooong time before they
get any of that money back. This was going to happen anyway, but
the 3G delays aren't helping any.
And -- again -- Japan seems to be a bit of an exception, with Docomo & co
getting their licenses free and being able to offset investment with
their massive profits. We'll see how it all works out, but I don't
think Japan is in much danger of losing its lead anytime soon.
Cheers,
--
Jani Patokallio (jpatokal@iki.fi) / HCI Lab, University of Tokyo
[ Did you check the archives? http://www.appelsiini.net/keitai-l/ ]
Received on Thu May 17 08:35:36 2001