True that the 3G "anti-hype" is about as grounded in reality as the 3G hype
was, but I personally think it is long overdue. Some have long suggested
that 3G network and service roll-out would be driven by operator capacity
requirements NOT by some vague supposed consumer desire for video streaming
etc.
If we use Docomo as a bench-mark, and assume that 50% penetration of 2G data
services is a good time to start doing something about 3G networks, then we
should be expecting 3G in other markets anytime from 2004 - 2010 (depending
on market, and whose data you believe), when GPRS/EDGE data services hit
that kind of penetration rate. Thats a pretty long bet, and its not just
the operators that paid the big bucks for licences who will lose out, what
about all the other consulting, SI's, software & hardware vendors that have
been planning and spending for 3G revolution.
I reckon the 3G anti-hype is long overdue. Bring on GPRS/EDGE and wireless
LAN.
Fenton
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Received on Thu May 17 08:39:07 2001