(keitai-l) Re: The 3G anti-hype

From: Benedict Evans <inherent_at_hotmail.com>
Date: 05/17/01
Message-ID: <LAW2-F122ANJQ0wwrHZ0000c88d@hotmail.com>
Michael, there's a rather basic problem with your arguemnt: Operators 
*didn't* buy 3G to do streaming video!

If you *listen* to them, they say that 3G is about voice capacity for the 
first 5 years at least, with data the icing on the cake, not the cake 
itself. It's all very well to say that you can add capacity to GSM, and 
indeed so you can. But that route has been taken as far as it will go. GSM 
was designed at a time when people thought there was a market for at most 4M 
mobile subscribers in the UK - there are now over 40 million.

That is, there is a point at which it is more economical to build a new 
network - even if you have to buy a licence - than continue adding capacity 
to a netork that's already handling ten times the traffic that it was 
concieved for. That point, for the leading operators, has now been passed. 
3G is cheaper than struggling on with GSM.

Now, it's perfectly true that consumers show no interest in mobile 
multimedia services. If you'd asked, they'd have shown no interest in the 
internet, either, but that's by the by. But they do rather like mobile 
voice, I think you'd agree. And 3G gives operators the ability to do *all* 
voice by mobile - to completely replace a country's fixed voice network.
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Received on Thu May 17 12:37:22 2001