(keitai-l) Re: does anyone know how many Java-enabled phones have been sold in Japan?

Michael,

I am sorry if I sound pedantic, but I don't agree with your logic,
and I think your number is wrong (the arithmetics is ok, but the
logic is wrong):

Your calculation needs to be like this:

(4260 - x)/(25269 - 19500) = y = Percentage of _new_ subscr. 
choosing i-appli rather than non-i-appli imode handsets

where x = # of existing DoCoMo subscribers exchanging their 
non-JAVA phone to a JAVA-phone

Since probably only DoCoMo knows x, I'll make a guess. Let's assume
that 1/3 of the JAVA users are new subscribers, then your number y is
more like 25%.

The reason for my argument is that those people getting a JAVA phone
now are likely to be kind of people who got an imode phone early on,
while new subscribers now, are more likely to be newbies, who maybe
have a tendency to get a non-JAVA phone (you'll need to make a correction
to this argument for those who switch from AU/J-Phone to DoCoMo to get
JAVA a few weeks earlier, or from H to get a JAVA phone at all).

Best regards,

Gerhard Fasol
http://www.eurotechnology.com/



michael@haa.com.tw wrote:
> 
> from http://www.nttdocomo.com/i/i_m_scr.html
> the total subscribers is about 19500 thousands on 2001 Jan.
> the total subscribers is about 25269 thousands on 2001 July. 8.
> 
> Java phone was first launched on 2001 Jan
> 
> so since Java phone was available,
> 4260/(25269-19500)=73.8% subcribers choose i-appli rather than non-java
> i-mode.
> 
> Wa! that's huge success for Java in wireless market.
> 
> How do u think?
> 
> Michael
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Gerhard Fasol [mailto:fasol@eurotechnology.com]
> Sent: Wednesday, July 11, 2001 4:45 PM
> To: keitai-l@appelsiini.net
> Cc: dargelb@intel.co.jp
> Subject: (keitai-l) Re: does anyone know how many Java-enabled phones
> have been sold in Japan?
> 
> Based on Brian's input I am refining my estimate:
> 
> DoCoMo (7/8 July 2001)         4,260,000 (DoCoMo official)
> DoCoMo since 7/8 July             80,000 (my estimate)
> J-Phone + AU           150,000 - 200,000 (Brian's estimate)
> 
> total              4,490,000 - 4,540,000
> 
> 5 million was not such a bad number :)
> 
> Best regards,
> 
> Gerhard Fasol
> http://www.eurotechnology.com/imode/faq.html
> 
> Gerhard Fasol wrote:
> >
> > > > does anyone know how many Java-enabled phones have been sold in Japan?
> > >
> > > My rough guess is on the order of 5 million. SONY alone sold about
> > > 1/2 million SO503i's, which they had to exchange in a very expense
> > > recall action.
> > >
> > > Gerhard Fasol
> > > http://www.eurotechnology.com/imode/faq.html
> > >
> > > >"Dargel, Brian A" wrote:
> > > > I am sure most people already know, but  the lastest subscriber
> numbers for
> > > > i-mode AND i-appli capable subs are listed on the DoCoMo web site...
> > > > 4,260,000 as of July 8, 2001
> > > > Brian
> >
> > Thank you Brian, of course we know that.
> > I understood the question to mean all JAVA handsets, not only DoCoMo's!
> >
> > My estimate of 5 million takes into account that both J-phone as well as
> > AU/KDDI have now also started JAVA appli services, also the DoCoMo
> > number
> > is a couple of days old. Therefore my estimate is approx. 5 million JAVA
> > enabled handset users _today_.
> >
> > Gerhard
> > http://www.eurotechnology.com/imode/faq.html
> >
> > [ Did you check the archives?   http://www.appelsiini.net/keitai-l/ ]
> 
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