The real problem with 3G is that it got called 'high speed mobile internet'
- which it isn't at all. 3G is a replacement for the current mobile phone
system which has vastly more capcity. I've spoken to people in ETSI who say
that W-CDMA has 20-30 times more capacity, MHz for MHz, than GSM. 3G voice
at 64 Kbits/sec v. GSM voice at 9.6 Kbits/sec works out at five-six times
more space. But we won't really know for ten years just how much W-CDMA can
carry if pushed.
The mobile data bit got hugely hyped last year - mainly as a result of the
Mannesman take-over, which turned into a contest over who could make the
most optimistic claims about how much data would be on the network.
In reality, though, you can do a number of things with that capacity. You
*can* do mobile data, at up to 384 Kbits/sec real-world. While not many
applications need that much, 3G is also the only technology that can deliver
even 64 Kbits/sec - EDGE will not be deployed in Europe and GPRS will only
very rarely go above 3 times slots in practice: with most operators saying
they'll only deploy CS2, that comes to a realistic max of 40 Kbits/sec or so
(in theory).
But from operators' point of view, just as in Japan, 3G is really all about
voice capcity, at least for the first four or five years. GSM (like PDC) is
now effectively full. For the leading operators, it is now becoming cheaper
to deploy 3G (including the licence) than to continue trying to cram more
capacity into a technology designed for a tenth as many customers - while
foregoing the additional revenues coming from traffic that GSM simply can't
carry.
Wher will this extra traffic come from? What we're now seeing across Europe
is migration of voice traffic off fixed networks onto mobile networks. GSM
can't handle that - 3G can.
Incidentally, PHS wasn't rejected because it competed with DECT! DECT was
rejected too! I've read ten-year old research reports claiming that public
DECT networks would have as many customers as GSM (and that there'd be
22.089745 m GSM customers in Europe in 2000). Guess how many there are?
None. Why would I buy a cordless phone when I can get a proper mobile?
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Received on Wed Jul 25 10:13:38 2001