This is probably gotta be too long and thrown together drunk, but I've a couple
of weeks of slow time at work coming..so I can argue my case.
Video is gotta be a massive, all-encompassing, world dominating,
KILLER-application IF it can be made to cost like i-mode is today. If it costs
what it costs today for imode to access video content anytime, anywhere on the
planet earth, then of course, everyone (at least most people) would do it. Why
wouldn't you show your mom your latest girlfriend? Why wouldn't you show your
friend you latest pimple, or the restaurent you just ate in? or the apartment
that you want to rent?... Of course you would, if it doesn't significantly
change your lifestyle (i.e. put you in debt beyond redemption)....
When you get video in the picture with keitais - something that you have with
you ALL THE TIME - then that changes everything. The point is that there is only
so much money a user can spend on their Keitai bill, without being kill by their
spouse, evicted by their landloads, or fired from the jobs.
You can say, yeah pornography will be the killer app., but of course pornography
will attract some users some of the time, but NOT ALL of the time. Imagine if
you will the ideal pornography CONSUMER. What will he do? He might get a FOMA
phone which might have access to 25,000 sites offering pornography. He might
access it as he (sorry for the assumption that all perverts are men) leaves his
house, as he takes the train or drives to work, during lunch hour, and when he
goes to a bar after work, or whenever he is away from people that might say "hey
why are you looking at that 16 year-old girl without panties on?" Imagine his
reaction when he gets a bill at the end of the month for 100,000 yen (the extra
0 is NOT a typo) instead of his regular 10,000 yen bill. I seriously think that
he would think twice before he logs on to some, as someone mentioned, health
delivery site the next month.
The same argument goes with movie trailers. Everyone would probably love to see
the previews of movies, such as on TV, and they might even be willing to pay for
them, if the price itself is something that they can afford... If DoCoMo imode
users spend an average of 8,000 (or whatever it is at the moment) on their
monthly mobile phone bill, are they going to spend more just because of some new
applications (like video), even if that application promises them more joy,
happiness, estacsy or whatever.
(Completely out of my mind here) Imagine a button that someone can put on a
Keitai that can grant one shag (one night of carnal pleasure) except that
pushing it might cost twice as much as the regular Keitai bill... How many
people would press that button? You can say many, many, many, many.. but would
it really be any more than what people are spending on shags in Shinjuku, or
Roppongi, or whereever that trade might be... I DON'T THINK SO. Video is as
desirable on a Keitai as anything else, (yes, even a shag), as long as it
doesn't cost any more than people are paying already.
Disposable income puts a limit on everything, and no matter what a Keitai
service does, it has to fit in that equation, unless it can do something else.
I HAVE TO MAKE A POINT HERE IN RESPONSE TO SOME PAST POST on the list:
According to all the research and news that I've gathered....
DoCoMo's ARPU = 1997 = 11,000 yen
1998 = 9,000 yen
1999 = 8.600 yen
2000 = 8,000 yen
i-mode's success has gotten some people to pay more for their keitai service,
but not everybody. They have instead convinced more people to use the service.
In order for something like FOMA to really be a major factor in the economy, it
has to create some value on its own, but it cannot do that if it does not go
outside its domain. How can FOMA make Japanese users to pay more if all they can
afford is 8,000 yen. It has to replace something. So far, DoCoMo has tried, the
latest attempt with Coca Cola. While keitai users can now buy a Coke at vending
machines and pay some marginal fee (I suspect because I have no idea), then
DoCoMo increases usage of its network and most important of all, it replaces
COINS. If someone's who is going to buy a coke from a vending machine arrives
and knows that it will cost 150 yen for a coke, but 160 yen if he buys it with a
keitai, he might use cash if he has it. If not, then he might be willing pay the
extra 10 yen for the convenience. He might chose to pay the extra 10 yen in the
first month to show off to his friends, but if the extra change becomes
something like 1,000 yen, i think he might think twice..Some might argue, who's
going to buy 100 cokes in a month? Probably not many people.
But, POS (point-of-sale) payments are the basic premise for mobile-commerce,
which isn't like surfing the Web and buying something online (like Amazone.com)
but increasingly about the ability to pay for a transaction from a keitai, so
the operator can take a slice of the profit.....
My point after all (that drunken prose) is that the popularity of any product or
service, is effected by more than its users, countries, citizens, economy and
whatever. It is easily governed by more factors than people's desires for one
thing or another. There is always going to be a limit to what people see as
value to any service or end-result (a very bad example is the old tale about the
price of the soul).......
To think that video on the Keitai will change the way people watch TV, or go to
the movies or view any multimedia content is naive. It might add some value to
some people. The example I have is people who live continents apart. Of course,
I will pay more to have a video conference with my mother halfway across the
world, but I might only do it if it is cheaper than the air ticket that allows
me to visit her every year. There is no way that I would engage in that video
conference if it means I won't be able to have a proper dinner for a week.
Of course, there is a value to video. Look at email. It meant instantaneous
communications across the world, practically eliminating tedious snailmail
letters. It really change the world by enabling immediate communication but
without (mostly) the cost of international telephone tariff. Why is email so
much cheaper? Because it allows people to communicate with each other within the
same (almost the same given the ISP sector today) cost structure, or cheaper,
than before. Video is the same. It is something that people might warm to, but
it has to replace some existing high-tariff product, such as an airplane ticket,
to be really successful.
I will stop after this point ( I promise) How many emails would be sent if each
email was priced like an international telephone call? Not nearly half, or even
a tenth as much I suspect!
For those I've bored I sincerely apologized. And Micheal, don't say I didn't
warn you.
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Received on Thu Aug 9 21:53:45 2001