I think this 80-20% idea is pretty true. From what I can tell from magazine
surveys, etc. 80% of users do not venture outside the imode menu. And of
the 20% that do, I would guestimate 80% of the traffic is generated by 20%
of this subgroup. Then with another guestimate, 80% of this high traffic
group, goes to 20% (probably less) of unofficial sites.
So in actual figures using the 80/20 rule-
30million imode users, 2000 official sites, 50,000+ unofficial sites
24 million users stay within the official menu, 6 million venture out
4.8 million very active official site users, leaving 15.4 mil moderate /
3.8 mil light/inactive (but still paying the 300yen imode fee).
1.2 million are high traffic, 3.85 moderate, .95 light unofficial users,
visiting 10,000 unofficial sites.
The above is based on my own opinions- use it at your own risk!
Docomo could easily compile real traffic,usage stats, and if anyone has
such info, PLEASE, PLEASE, pass it along.
David M.
>I'm not sure that this will help advance the discussion, but what the
heck:
>Most of the argument here can be subject to scientific, statistical
>analysis.
>Quick Statement:
>"open" or "closed" sites aside, there is always a distribution of
>traffic to sites, usually a Zipf's law distribution. If you knew the
>statistics of site access for official and non-official sites, you could
>measure the height of the "wall" by looking at the difference (if any)
>between the distribution of accesses to open and closed sites. The
>exponent in Zipf's law might be different for the two, but probably not,
>probably just the constant offset, which is a measure of the height of
>the "wall".
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Received on Sun Dec 30 08:49:14 2001