(keitai-l) Re: In case you invested in 3G...

From: Tc <tc7991_at_netvigator.com>
Date: 04/27/02
Message-ID: <3CCAF3CF.8060107@netvigator.com>
The fact remains that GPRS is still a mystery even to people who are 
trying to sell it. Walk into any operator's retail shop to get a GPRS 
phone and try to ask what services are available and the answer is more 
likely than not, none.. because the salespeople working for minimum wage 
are just not train to sell the service. Ask any operator out there today 
and chances are they will quote you high speed data, always on 
connectivity, but what you can do with it is always muddled... Sure you 
can check email, but right now, in Hong Kong at least, you can only do 
it with an email that the GPRS provider provides you.. But actually, 
with my Yahoo! email account, I can check any other email I want by 
using the Check Other Mail function... (note that it only works when you 
have one pop email address to check) Also, it only works if you connect 
through the Yahoo! Wap portal out of Ireland.. You can't do it via the 
US, HK, or even the UK Yahoo! account... Funny that.. And I'll bet that 
even the people at Yahoo! don't know that..

GPRS will work, of course it will... It is just a little too complicated 
right now and it involves too many people to make it work to be really 
mainstream.. Imagine if for SMS, you need to buy a new handset, 
subscribe to a new service, configure you handset with complicated IP 
address and WAP gateways (although some vendors allows this to be done 
over-the-air), then try to figure out how much it would cost you to use 
it... I think GPRS operators need to configure handsets so they work on 
their GPRS network, instead of only doing it when someone subscribes to 
the service. You would be surprise, again at least in HK, how seldom 
salespeople even try to sell GPRS when they are signing up a customer 
who are obviously buying a GPRS handset.. usually there is no incentive 
for them, they make the same salary either way, and it is just more 
trouble for them to explain all the price plans and the configs you need 
to do to access the service...

you have to remember, it took SMS some 10 years to take off... and it is 
  finally paying off for operators... I expect it will take a couple of 
years for GPRS to really get to a 'common' status before it becomes a 
service that everyone will use without thinking about it.. DoCoMo has 
done a great job at making i-mode that (something that people don't have 
to think about to use), but then again, they control the service and the 
handsets that access it, just look at the fact that all i-mode handsets 
include an 'i' button that access the service automatically... try 
getting all the handset vendors to put in such a button plus the 
necessary configs for all 450+ GSM/GPRS operators. FAT chance without 
some major cost add-ons..

GPRS will make money because it is a technology that works - because 
I've used it. That's more than I can say for 3G, although I suspect it 
is the same..  And eventually, in two-five years time, everyone will 
have a GPRS/3G handsets and they will use it because it will become a 
mainstream service. There will be no difference better GPRS and SMS in a 
couple of years' time. Sure, someone, somewhere out there might still 
separate the revenue between the two services, but for the majority of 
the people, there will be very little difference...

So in case you have invested in 3G, don't worry.. there might be some 
operators who go broke, but there is nothing fundamentally wrong with 
offering more performance and throughput to cell phones... It might be 
that some operators over-estimated the return on 3G, but it doesn't mean 
  the value proposition of having a 3G service is not there... As 
everyone knows, new technology replaces old technology over time. And 
what can replace 2G except 3G?

I predict in two year's time, a 3G handset will cost the same as a 2G 
handset.. When that happens, everyone will be on 3G. They might not be 
paying 10x the money for the service like some operators and 
techno-hypist might have predicted, but 3G will be alive and well.. and 
I suspect, it will make money..


Tom Hume wrote:

> Precisely. And where's the incentive for people who could build worthwhile 
> services - the content providers - to invest time, effort, and money in 
> doing so? With the exception of a few well-publicised deals with large 
> content providers (the BBC, EMAP, etc.), little has happened here.
> 
> At 21:39 26/04/2002 -0700, Donal O'Shea wrote:
> 
> 
> 
>>They have done NOTHING to inform people on what GPRS is or what it can
>>do. They have provided NO applications or services.
>>
>>Now the only chance they have is to price it right -- like SMS.
>>
>>Don't hold you breath! These people are special.
>>
>>---DO'S
>>
>>
>>-----Original Message-----
>>From: keitai-l-bounce@appelsiini.net
>>[mailto:keitai-l-bounce@appelsiini.net] On Behalf Of James Bennett
>>Sent: Friday, April 26, 2002 07:24
>>To: 'keitai-l@appelsiini.net'
>>Subject: (keitai-l) Re: In case you invested in 3G...
>>
>>
>>
>>An interesting little factoid from the UK, rather like that low level of
>>Foma usage on Foma.
>>A fifth of all handsets sold in the UK by the Carphone Warehouse, the
>>biggest phone retailer in the country, were GPRS in Q1. That's about
>>35,000
>>units.
>>And how many of those people used GPRS network services?
>>200.
>>This reminds me of the days when SMS was installed on all phones, but it
>>took months and months before it took off and then boom.
>>So where's the "Tipping Point"?
>>
>>
>>This mail was sent to address tom@futureplatforms.com
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>>
>>
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> 
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Received on Sat Apr 27 21:52:22 2002