(keitai-l) Re: DoCoMo posts profit on 3G

From: Andrea Hoffmann <hoffmann_at_egis.co.jp>
Date: 08/14/03
Message-ID: <074a01c36265$4f0655a0$0b01a8c0@IBMX23>
Dear all,

> >If anything has helped DoCoMo as a cash-cow, its their 2.5G PDC i-mode
> >service.
>
> Operation Data for first quarter 2003 (official NTT DoCoMo data)
>
> Voice ARPU (PDC): JPY 6,140
> i-mode ARPU (PDC): JPY 1,900
>
> Voice ARPU (FOMA): JPY 6,360
> i-mode ARPU (FOMA): JPY 2,960

Yes, I see your point, but ARPU does not mean profitability by itself. It
does not consider expenses such as cost of sales and it does not say
anything about the size of the user base. In fact, I found one company
recommending to consider AMPU (Average Margin Per User) as a better metric
for measuring the success of mobile operators (see
http://www.gii.co.jp/press/hs13632_en.shtml)

But anyway, let's look at last fiscal year's results for DoCoMo in terms of
ARPU:

* DoCoMo Total ARPU for FY2002
PDC = 8,120 Yen
FOMA = 7,740 Yen

This result plus the large difference in userbase between PDC and FOMA leads
to the following revenue statement (all quotes from DoCoMo's annual report):

"FOMA services account only for 0.3% of total wireless revenues" (revenues,
not profit)

and

"Despite the increase in FOMA revenues in fiscal 2002,  FOMA did not
contribute to, and impacted negatively on,  DoCoMo's operating income due
primarily to large depreciation and amortization expenses associated with
FOMA telecommunications facilities."

I am not saying that FOMA will not contribute to DoCoMo's profit in the
future, but just not yet. Accordingly, DoCoMo's annual report states that
their income is still largely based on PDC (i-mode) services.

Anyway, just my two cents....

Andrea
EGIS Consulting Group
Received on Thu Aug 14 16:15:54 2003