(keitai-l) Re: mobile phones killing iPod (was "iPod killing Mobile Phones")

From: Benjamin Joffe <benjamin_at_newtgames.com>
Date: 10/20/04
Message-ID: <4175EF8B.8000305@newtgames.com>
Curt Sampson wrote:

>On Wed, 20 Oct 2004, Benjamin Joffe wrote:
>  
>
>>And as foreign music is less than 25% of music sales (according to
>>Japanese Record Association figures), the current iTunes catalog is
>>probably not a satisfactory offer for Japanese consumers.
>>    
>>
>It depends on what that is 25% of. If it's 25% of CDs sold, sure,
>foreign music is not so popular here. But I suspect, given how much
>foreign music you hear at nightclubs and in shops here, that 25% is 25%
>of gross yen sales, which is a completely different figure.
>
>A CD imported from the US normally sells for about 1500-1800 yen here. A
>domestic Japanese CD invariably sells for 3000-3200 yen. (I have never,
>ever seen a new, non-delete domestic CD on sale for less than the price
>put on it by the manufacturer.) So if import CDs are generating 25% of
>gross sales, they're somewhere between 36% and 43% of the music market.
>  
>
What you write is true, but the difference in album price does not 
generate so big discrepancies.

To let the numbers do the talking, here are the 2003 ones from the 
Recording Industry Association of Japan website:

a- Sales in thousand units
domestic: 251,038 (76.4%)
foreign: 77,349 (23,6%)
total: 328,387

b- Sales in million JPY
domestic: 292,900 (73,3%)
foreign: 106,790 (26,7%)
total: 399,690

Despite the fact that the average foreign CD is cheaper than local 
products, the share of sales is higher
than the shares of sold units probably because those figures also take 
into account CD singles,
which lower the "average price" of a domestic CD.

>>Unfortunately, I tend to think that Japan may "swim against the tide"
>>until they come up with a satisfactory DRM system for PC download.
>>    
>>
>
>Probably. But this is likely as much about maintaining the current
>price-fixing in the domestic music market as anything else.
>
>  
>
Most probably right.

To answer also Nick's comment about the storage value of CDs: if CDs are 
backups,
and DVDs can now save you the trouble of having multiple bakcups, I 
think there
is a misconception here : digital does not equal disposable, low 
quality, or low artistic level.

Though the move to digital will lead to take music out of divorce 
settlements, it does not mean
you cannot argue or be emotional about it. The "chewing gum" trend has 
more to do about
the Record Companies production strategy and the fact that they cater 
for an increasingly smaller
population (teens and twenty-somethings).

Another point is that back up of data may eventually move online, 
instead of using CD/DVD/whatever hardware.
Again, it will not happen overnight, though.

As the discussion is going quite aside from mobile business, I suggest 
we discuss off-list if you want,
or look for / start a new list about digital music ;-)

Cheers,

-- Benjamin
Received on Wed Oct 20 07:55:25 2004