On Dec 6, 2004, at 4:51 PM, Martyn_Williams@idg.com wrote:
> I would bet most business users and most consumers are willing to pay
> the
> premium for reliable, stable service than try to save a few bucks using
> wireless Internet technologies.
Yes, but. And the "but" is, people who need always to be contactable,
or always able to make calls, even when travelling at speed in a
vehicle, will want a premium service of the type 3G offers. But for a
section section of the market, and a very large section of some markets
- they don't need that. 3G isn't just about talk - or even mainly about
talk - it's about shifting huge quantities of data around in the form
of ringtones, mp3s, movies etc etc. And THAT is where they are
vulnerable I think. Why would I ever download an MP3 over a 3G network?
Why would I ever use a 3G network for ANYTHING involving transfer of
serious amounts of data? (Unless I am out in the wilds somewhere...).
For me, and I suspect, many other city based consumers, 2G + Wifi +
VOIP is "enough".
The interesting thing over the last few years is how consumers are
prepared to make major sacrifices in quality if there is a dramatic
cost saving/other advantage. Witness the growth of international call
services which offer moderately grotty voice quality (rather worse than
the original telcos) at a far cheaper price. Witness the dire voice
quality of keitai's themselves (2G in Japan, at least) - far worse than
PHS, but offering a compelling advantage in terms of coverage and
handoff.
The 3G people really have to get their act together - I am mildly geeky
and I have yet to see anything from them that would tempt me away from
2G + pda. (Now a 3G phone with a CLI, THAT would be tempting...) VOIP
SIP phones may not have high speed handoff, etc etc, but they ARE
usable anywhere in the world - without me having to wonder about
compatibility between networks and the like, and with all the
advantages of local numbering/cost that they bring. Sure, I can't
always be contacted - but I can get an email to my keitai to say I have
had a call - and can I call back - and for many people, in many
situations, that is "good enough". Not all, admittedly, but is 3G JUST
to make do with the crumbs?
What is the compelling advantage of 3G? There is still a good story to
tell about 2G, (coverage/handoff) but I don't buy - (and literally have
not bought) - the extra G...
Nick
Received on Mon Dec 6 13:46:59 2004