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(keitai-l) Re: mobile phones killing iPod (was "iPod killing Mobile Phones")

From: Benjamin Joffe <benjamin_at_newtgames.com>
Date: 10/26/04
Message-ID: <417DBD76.70902_at_newtgames.com>
I quite agree with Kyle, video telephony is not "just another application".

To start with, it is more a technology than a service, and though it may 
increase (or slow the decline)
in MOU (minutes of usage) and voice ARPU, it will in its current state 
generate no data traffic.

Many users study have been done about this in Japan and major reasons 
seen as hurdles
for the yet-to-be-but-don't-expect-too-much take-off are (among others):

a- network effect. This is a major one : no video if there is nobody to 
do video with.
I remember about 1.5 year ago a guy posted his FOMA number on the 
internet saying "call me"

b- interoperability. Only DoCoMo runs a sizeable video phone service, so 
you cannot
talk with your friends _at_ KDDI or Boda (except for the few VGS users)

c- price. Despite huge price cuts (almost the level of normal voice 
calls now...), video phone
is still perceived as expensive. Remember also that FOMA 
"3G-video-handsets" are sold
about the same price as 2G handsets used to be (or less, sometimes). 
Give people 3G for
the price of 2G and call it a commercial success...

d- intrusiveness. You cannot walk or do anything else when you do 
videophone.
You are not "mobile" anymore, you are "nomad" or "at home/office"....

e- social factors. Using video phone it outdoor is also a little strange 
(similar to the first steps of mobile phones,
except  that it is more perceived as "annoying" than "cool", due to the 
evolution of "mobile manners")

f- "What if I don't want to show my face?" factor. Maybe the only one 
"truly Japanese", but applicable
elsewhere to some extent. Would you accept a call from your 
boy/girlfriend when waking-up ?
What would you do if s.o. calls you in video mode while in toilet ? 
while dressed casually ? while naked ?
while you are not where you are supposed to be ?

Sadly, because Carriers paid so much for video phone that they have no 
choice but to say it is a "killer service"
but I can hardly see a new market created out of whether video phone or 
video clips.
Both are likely to remain niche markets for a few years before s.o. 
comes up with a new concept
which is a REAL service.

Some devices designed to provide a connection with FOMA (like the 
soon-to-be-forgotten Moppet)
were unlikely to succeed because of 1) high price 2) the necessity to 
buy another device
However, Video phone as a service is likely to be fueled by the 
interoperability with PC-based video
(DoCoMo has developed a platform to convert to H323 if I remember correctly)

3G killer ap is more likely to be mobile music, much more versatile and 
easy to produce than mobile video
(adapting video to mobile format is apparently a cost-intensive and time 
consuming chore).
Killer services are likely to come from the use of network, but you will 
then need to have
something plugged at the other end of it.

-- Benjamin

Kyle Barrow wrote:

>On 2004 Oct 25, , at 10:03, Jon Ellis wrote:
>
>  
>
>>I'm often left wondering what it would take for video
>>telephony to take off...
>>    
>>
>
>Requiring the attention of two senses, video calls are invasive and 
>definitely not the "3G killer app" operators would have us believe.
>
>Kyle
>
>  
>
Received on Tue Oct 26 05:59:39 2004