I quite agree with Kyle, video telephony is not "just another application".
To start with, it is more a technology than a service, and though it may
increase (or slow the decline)
in MOU (minutes of usage) and voice ARPU, it will in its current state
generate no data traffic.
Many users study have been done about this in Japan and major reasons
seen as hurdles
for the yet-to-be-but-don't-expect-too-much take-off are (among others):
a- network effect. This is a major one : no video if there is nobody to
do video with.
I remember about 1.5 year ago a guy posted his FOMA number on the
internet saying "call me"
b- interoperability. Only DoCoMo runs a sizeable video phone service, so
talk with your friends _at_ KDDI or Boda (except for the few VGS users)
c- price. Despite huge price cuts (almost the level of normal voice
calls now...), video phone
is still perceived as expensive. Remember also that FOMA
"3G-video-handsets" are sold
about the same price as 2G handsets used to be (or less, sometimes).
Give people 3G for
the price of 2G and call it a commercial success...
d- intrusiveness. You cannot walk or do anything else when you do
You are not "mobile" anymore, you are "nomad" or "at home/office"....
e- social factors. Using video phone it outdoor is also a little strange
(similar to the first steps of mobile phones,
except that it is more perceived as "annoying" than "cool", due to the
evolution of "mobile manners")
f- "What if I don't want to show my face?" factor. Maybe the only one
"truly Japanese", but applicable
elsewhere to some extent. Would you accept a call from your
boy/girlfriend when waking-up ?
What would you do if s.o. calls you in video mode while in toilet ?
while dressed casually ? while naked ?
while you are not where you are supposed to be ?
Sadly, because Carriers paid so much for video phone that they have no
choice but to say it is a "killer service"
but I can hardly see a new market created out of whether video phone or
Both are likely to remain niche markets for a few years before s.o.
comes up with a new concept
which is a REAL service.
Some devices designed to provide a connection with FOMA (like the
were unlikely to succeed because of 1) high price 2) the necessity to
buy another device
However, Video phone as a service is likely to be fueled by the
interoperability with PC-based video
(DoCoMo has developed a platform to convert to H323 if I remember correctly)
3G killer ap is more likely to be mobile music, much more versatile and
easy to produce than mobile video
(adapting video to mobile format is apparently a cost-intensive and time
Killer services are likely to come from the use of network, but you will
then need to have
something plugged at the other end of it.
Kyle Barrow wrote:
>On 2004 Oct 25, , at 10:03, Jon Ellis wrote:
>>I'm often left wondering what it would take for video
>>telephony to take off...
>Requiring the attention of two senses, video calls are invasive and
>definitely not the "3G killer app" operators would have us believe.
Received on Tue Oct 26 05:59:39 2004