(keitai-l) Re: Forrester: WI-FI is going to crash

From: Benedict Evans <ben_at_ben-evans.com>
Date: 06/24/03
Message-ID: <000001c33a1f$b3e607e0$0100a8c0@benedict>
As a matter of fact, in the UK the gung-ho operators are planning to
spend maybe GPB5bn each on building a complete national network; the
others maybe 3-4. That works out at about GBP 85 per head in the UK.
Arguable a more meaningful number would be cost/current mobile
subscribers of the operator doing the deployment - 5000/12= 415. Add
licence costs of say 6bn...

But now, divide 415/12 months/10 years, and you get to around GBP3 per
month, or double that if you include licence costs...

You figure on WLAN costs seems frankly bizarre to me. A single 3G
basestation now costs less that $50k, yet has a range measured in tens
of miles in all directions (no pringle cans) and can cary 256 separate
calls simultaneously. How many WLAN access points are needed for that
coverage? 50? 100? 500? What does it cost to send a man with a van to
all those locations? What is the backhaul - what are those access points
connected to?! Wide area, large scale public WLAN is like trying to
transport an infantry division in a whole lot of rowing boats. Sure, the
rowing boat is a lot cheaper for one person - but not for 10,000. 

Out of curiosity, why are there no construction costs in building WLAN?
Do you really believe that every 500 yards along the m25 some obliging
person will put up an access point, out of the kindness of their heart?
Hampstead heath? Brixton? Tower Hamlets? Cherry Hinton? Stow on the
Wold?


-----Original Message-----
From: keitai-l-bounce@appelsiini.net
[mailto:keitai-l-bounce@appelsiini.net] On Behalf Of Debi Jones
Sent: 24 June 2003 06:13
To: keitai-l@appelsiini.net
Subject: (keitai-l) Re: Forrester: WI-FI is going to crash


About a year ago, I did some research into the cost of covering the UK
with 3G including cost of licenses, tower construction and
infrastructure.  I did not include the direct costs to users such as
devices and applications.  To deploy 3G in the UK it would cost $687 per
population head.  Of course many of the population wouldn't be consumers
of the technology for some time as they are still in diapers.  :-)
While I haven't yet completed the same analysis for Wi-Fi, my instincts
tell me there is a huge difference.  No licenses, real estate leases, or
tower construction would be required for covering the country with
Wi-Fi.
Received on Tue Jun 24 10:14:35 2003